A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
